A helyzet ennél sokkal rosszabb, nemcsak a VW - ezt most kaptam:
Not just a VW scandal
The VW emission fraud in the US is likely to have broader implications for the European car industry, and the eurozone economy at large, which is heavily dependent on it;
much of the coverage this morning concerns the VW share prices, the fine, and the increasingly doubtful future of VW boss Martin Winterkorn;
more important in our view is the likely stream of evidence that will link other manufacturers to this scandal;
it appears that the technology used to commit this fraud was developed by Robert Bosch, which has supplied the same technology to other car makers;
the technology includes sophisticated software that detects when an emissions test is conducted, and which reduces the output of the engine to below the legal limits;
we have other reports of a massive gap between stated and measured diesel emissions, which corroborate the view that the problem is endemic, and not limited to VW;
more tests will now be conducted in the US and Germany to determine whether other car manufacturers are also violating the rules;
the issue casts doubt on the future of diesel technology, as pressure will now be growing on car makers and governments to stop favouring this technology;
We normally treat corporate stories as outside of our reservation, but this one is one of the few with the potential to radiate firmly inside our reservation, given the importance of German car industry for the wider eurozone economy. The criminal investigation into a manipulation of a diesel emissions test in the US by VW has the potential to sink large parts of the car industry.
The news coverage this morning focuses on the increasingly likely departure of VW chief Martin Winterkorn, on unconfirmed reports of a criminal investigation against VW in the US, the fall in the VW share price by some 20%, and the possibility of fines of up to $18bn.
Die Welt has a report on the wider implications for the entire German car industry, which for decades has bet its fortunes on cutting-edge diesel technology - a hard sell in the US where the diesel engine is considered as suitable for tractors rather than cars. VW was among the German car makers trying to sell "clean Diesel" technology. Robert Bosch is clearly implicated in this story because it has supplied VW with the technology that may be part of the alleged fraud. There is a big industrial network around Diesel technology, the closest one can come to a national industrial strategy, which is now coming under an existential threat.
The article in Die Welt is still talking about VW as a "black sheep", but that seems to be a case of German motor journalists huddling around the companies that feed them. What happened at VW is that they seemed to have saved money on an additional catalytic converter, which would have cut emissions of nitrogen oxide by a factor of 40, by turning the chemical compound into nitrogen and oxygen. Instead, VW tried to reduce the measured emissions through electronic tricks. The fraud occurred through what the US Environmental Protection Agency called a "sophisticated software algorithm", which was programmed to detect when an emissions test was being conducted, at which point the output of the engine was automatically reduced to the point where the legal limits are observed. One question is therefore whether this software algorithm was unique to VW, or whether it has been applied by other manufacturers. One expert quoted in the article says he presumes that the other manufactures would have used the second catalytic converter. But Reuters reports that the component in question was supplied by Bosch. A spokesman said: "We supply components for exhaust after-treatment to several manufacturers. The integration is the responsibility of the manufacturer." So this is unlikely a case that just concerns VW. Bosch supplies everybody.
Les Echos has a story pointing to further evidence that the gap between officially stated emissions and measured emissions is endemic. It points to various studies that have shown such large discrepancies. One institute referred to in that article took the example of an Audi A8, tested in Europe, which produced 21.9 times more nitrogen oxide than the legal limit.
The indication is therefore that there is a real problem that goes much beyond VW (while Audi is part of the VW group, much of its technical development is separate). Les Echos says manufacturers have learned how to circumvent the tests. The testing method itself is due for a change in September 2017, supposedly to become more realistic. (But who trusts those tests now?)
If as we suspect this is not just a "black sheep" issue, and if this leads to a fundamental global consumer shift against diesel cars, which we also suspect may happen, the result would be a blow to the European car sector, which has bet its fortunes on developing what is ultimately an environmentally inferior technology. So the impact is not just a reputational loss of the "made in Germany" brand.
The German and US governments are now pushing for a more detailed control of diesel emissions in Germany, according to Frankfurter Allgemeine, but as ever the German government is clearly more concerned about the industrial implications in general. The Green Party demanded an immediate session of the Bundestag to deal with this issue.
